Base Case Analysis

Base Case Analysis is a fundamental component of economic modelling, focusing on outcomes derived under the most likely or standard set of assumptions and input values. This analysis serves as the cornerstone for evaluating the economic viability and potential impacts of various scenarios within a model. It provides a benchmark against which sensitivity analyses are performed, revealing how alterations in input values or modelling assumptions might influence outcomes. This approach is critical for understanding the robustness and flexibility of economic evaluations, particularly in the context of health technology assessments (HTA). Organizations like NICE (National Institute for Health and Care Excellence) often require analyses based on a standard set of assumptions—termed ‘Reference Case Analysis’—to ensure consistency and comparability across evaluations. By applying these rigorous methodologies, Base Case Analysis helps policymakers, healthcare providers, and stakeholders make informed decisions by illustrating potential economic outcomes under expected conditions. This method also aids in identifying which variables have the most significant impact on conclusions, guiding future research and policy adjustments to optimize healthcare resources and outcomes.